A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
- Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
- The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
- Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
- The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
May core PCE likely rose just 0.11%, well below the Fed’s expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Headline points to weakness but the details are more positive
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
