A gradual recovery is taking hold, but manufacturing is too small to alter the bigger picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: House prices keep rising despite higher mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Persistent services inflation means more delay to rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a rebound in the surpluses of goods and services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Q2 exports now look salvageable, after a sturdy May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- Rent rises for new tenants have slowed sharply; the feared catch-up in CPI rent inflation is unlikely.
- We expect annualized CPI housing inflation to slow to 3-to-4% over the next few quarters.
- Q2 consumption is on course for a modest 2%, similar to Q1, after May's lacklustre retail sales data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
- …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
- We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
