Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
- Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
- Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
- Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
- The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
