- In one line: Manufacturing remains under strain and the near-term outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
A partial recovery, but still a downbeat picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Not as bad as feared, labour market is easing and wage growth will follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
- What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
- Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The labour market appears to be easing gradually, with employment likely flat and unemployment rising.
- Slowing underlying pay momentum is being masked by the temporary boost from April’s NLW hike.
- A gradually easing labour market, and falling inflation, will allow the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Disappointin manufacturing in Italy, a still-rising Sentix and political drama in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The NY Fed survey shows wage growth and long-run inflation expectations are in line with the 2010s.
- People plan to spend 5% more over the next year, but expectations correlate poorly with actual spending.
- Tight credit conditions are weighing heavily on small firms, an ominous sign for the economy at large.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
- …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
- Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big.
- Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister.
- Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC forecast.
- We estimate that half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off that will drop out in May.
- The MPC can still cut Bank Rate in August as long as inflation keeps slowing, but it will be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in May, driven mainly by valuation effect of exchange rate
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's revised Q1 GDP still points to miserable domestic demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: The labour market bottoms out.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
