A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Slowing inflation will make the MPC happy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Cautious consumers keep private sales falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
- Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
- The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
- Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come?
- Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1.
- The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the rise in jobless claims accelerating?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
