Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Not a lot happening once we look through the noise from erratics, gold and fuel.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Flat GDP is a result, leaving the economy on track to grow 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Nasty, especially in the core, but it’ll get better soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Manufacturing remains under strain and the near-term outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Hit by increased food prices, due to the floods in the south.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
A partial recovery, but still a downbeat picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Not as bad as feared, labour market is easing and wage growth will follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
- EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
- UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
- CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
- EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The high core PCE prints in Q1 will force the Fed to revise up its Q4 forecast, and cut one easing.
- A jump in used car and vehicle insurance prices probably drove a 0.3% increase in the May core CPI...
- ...But core services CPI inflation likely slowed further, indicating monetary policy is tight enough.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
- The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
- Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We see the recent diesel-subsidy rationalisation in Malaysia as a net negative for retail sales growth...
- ...The impact on inflation is likely to be stronger, pushing the headline rate above 3% from June.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia plunged into the red in April; this year’s Ramadan splurge was limp.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
- What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
- Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
