THE SLOWDOWN IS REAL, AND WILL PERSIST…
- …THE FED IS RUNNING THE RISK OF DELAYING TOO LONG
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: The long decline in core goods inflation has no further to run.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- - CHINA’S ACTIVITY TICKING OVER ENOUGH
- - BOJ SIGNALS BOND BUYING TO SLOW
- - STRONG EXPORTS ALLOW BOK’S MORE HAWKISH STANCE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Shipping costs have rocketed, but they likely will add less than 0.1pp to core PCE inflation next year.
- The spike in shipping costs probably will unwind after tariff-related risks have abated.
- Consumer confidence likely dropped in June, with adverse implications for consumption growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s inflation uptick in June signals caution from Banxico; the next rate cut is likely delayed to August.
- Rising non-core inflation and MXN volatility challenge Banxico’s monetary policy stance.
- Brazil’s foreign investment inflows show resilience despite economic challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore rose in May, as higher COE prices pushed up transport inflation…
- …But the real story is core inflation staying at 3.1% for a third straight month, due to sticky services.
- The Taiwanese retail outlook looks weak for now, but the likelihood of stronger wage growth has risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s 20-day exports continued their uptrend in June, thanks to base effects and chip demand.
- Exports to the US are soaring, while shipments to China rose modestly; but the EU market is still weak.
- Export value growth is outpacing volume growth, thanks to rising semiconductor prices.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
- Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
- Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
- The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
- Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weakness in consumer demand remains, despite improvement in headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Core inflation in Singapore remains unchanged in May, despite headline rise
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The PMI fall is an election-related blip, the UK is growing fine.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
