Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A further slowdown in consumption growth seems increasingly likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Imports look to be on the rise again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Fed likely will have to revise up its unemployment forecast in September; the trend is rising.
- Consumers’ confidence fell again in June, despite lower gas prices and a booming stock market.
- The Empire State survey will help to assess the size of the shipping cost shock coming manufacturers’ way.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
- …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
- Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
- Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
- The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK