In one line: China's NBS PMIs surprised to the downside
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Manufacturing activities flounder in May on weakening domestic and external demand
Non-manufacturing PMI stalls as construction activity slow sharply
Japan’s Tokyo inflation accelerates on the back of expiring energy subsidies
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
April's industrial profits show slower recovery due to protracted reflation cycle
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: April was a bad month for consumers, but don’t write them off.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real incomes, spending and core prices increases are all slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Domestic demand, including inventories, rose; net exports plunged.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The HICP comes in hot; April spending dented by Easter seasonals.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: House prices are resisting the mortgage rate rise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, with growth slowing only modestly to 7.8% from 8.6% in Q4…
- …But an unsustainable jump in exports was the lone bright spot; domestic demand continues to slow.
- The slowdown in investment growth is intensifying, while private consumption remains woefully subpar.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US has proposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, which will have limited impact, in our view.
- Lithium batteries likely will be most affected, among other items targeted, with the US more exposed to it.
- China’s manufacturing activity shrank unexpectedly in May, suggesting more stimulus might be needed.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
- The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
- EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
