China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
- - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
- - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The BoJ raised the policy rate on Friday; Governor Ueda hinted at further rate hikes at a measured pace.
- The Bank is optimistic about continued steady wage inflation this year, given signs of labour shortages.
- It lifted its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025, due to higher import costs and rice inflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's export growth rebounds m/m SA, thanks to improved shipments to the EU and US
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's benchmark lending rates unchanged, as PBoC puts immediate focus on currency stability
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PBoC is stressing USDCNY support and holding rates steady, but we see this as tactical.
- Domestic demand is still lagging behind output growth, despite the Q4 GDP print.
- Currency depreciation will be part of the toolkit in response to likely aggressive US trade action.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q4 GDP growth surpassed market expectations, thanks to stimulus policies.
- But domestic demand remains weak overall, especially compared to vigorous output growth.
- China will need to step up fiscal policy support to nurse its recovery, as it faces export growth risks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK delivered a ‘dovish hold’ yesterday due to FX-volatility worries, in line with our forecast.
- The MPB recognises the need to shore up the economy but wants to learn more of Trump’s plans.
- The Bank is likely to resume rate cuts in February, as downside risks to domestic growth are rising.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s total social financing ticked up in December thanks to greater government-bond issuance.
- Stronger M2 growth reflects the policy lift to asset-market activity and consumer goods sales.
- But the shocking long-term corporate loan figure casts doubt on funding needs for investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s export growth rebounded in December, led by improvements in ASEAN and US shipments.
- China suffers from overcapacity in some industries, with export volume growing faster than value.
- Will President Trump follow through on his tariff threats on his first day, and how will China respond?
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Governor Ueda is keeping the BoJ's options open, monitoring Mr. Trump's return to power, and wages.
- Japan's November wage growth was steady, but most small firms aren't planning big wage hikes.
- Manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic, despite the darkening risks of trade protectionism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s CPI inched closer to deflation in December; fresh food and pork prices were the main drags.
- Core inflation improved for the third straight month, highlighting stabilising demand conditions.
- PPI reflation hinges on stimulus-related demand and how China addresses its overcapacity issue.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
