China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Duncan Wrigley
In one line: China's lower growth target signals priority for structural adjustment over short-term growth
- Premier Li set a lower growth target for 2026, as we expected, to put the focus on structural adjustment…
- …China is reliant on export growth, but that could be in jeopardy given geopolitical tensions and trade risks.
- Korea would be more vulnerable than Japan and China to a prolonged oil-price spike.
In one line: Korean PMI points to building inflation pressure
- Premier Li is likely to trim the 2025 growth target tomorrow, putting the focus on medium-term goals.
- China will probably step up the rhetoric on consumption, but without the matching substance.
- Policymakers are reluctant to shift support away from industrial policy, seen as key to China’s success.
In one line: Tokyo headline inflation under control
- Governor Ueda’s musings on a March or April policy rate hike are likely intended to bolster JPY…
- …Less currency pressure and low headline inflation will likely allow the BoJ to delay hiking until Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation edged up only 0.1pp to a still restrained 1.6% in February.
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
- We think the market has got it wrong in expecting a BoJ policy rate hike in April; Q4 is more likely.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall, while PM Takaichi will probably prove more fiscally pragmatic than feared.
- A case is emerging for a more positive view on Japan’s outlook, with the budget as the first test.
- Fresh thinking on China’s property market is emerging, but with no new policy ideas just yet.
- The new view stresses property as household wealth and thus linked to consumption demand.
- The back-and-forth in state support for Vanke hints at tensions as to how to tackle the developer debt crisis.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- China’s policymakers have a sophisticated analysis of low inflation and are more explicitly aiming for reflation.
- But this is not yet translating into a change in short-term monetary policy thinking.
- Broad credit growth continued to slow in January, with policy-bank-backed stimulus still coming through.
- Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
- She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
- On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win
- China will probably cut its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5-to-5%, following a flurry of local cuts to targets.
- The message is to prioritise medium-term goals, such as promoting tech sectors, over short-term growth.
- Private capital is flowing into AI, notably robotics, and clean energy at home and abroad.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI posts a modest gain, largely reflecting pre-holiday seasonality
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs indicate sharp divergence between old and new industries; Korean PMI lifted by AI-related chip sector
In one line: Sharp drop in Tokyo inflation largely due to one-off factors; won't change BoJ outlook
