China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
In one line: China’s commercial banks keep LPR steady in September; PBoC wary of a buoyant equity market
In one line: Korea’s September WDA exports plunge, led by US and China.
In one line: BoJ stays put on rates in September, starts ETFs and J-REITs offloading plan
Japan's flash PMIs reveal divergence between weakening manufacturing sector and resilient services activity
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
- Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
- Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
- We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
- The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support
- China’s broad credit growth slowed slightly in August, with seemingly dull private sector credit demand.
- Rising M1 growth is a probably a sign of funds returning from the bond market.
- No smoking gun yet in terms of fund leakage into the stock market via unofficial channels.
In one line: Valuation effects lift China’s FX reserves in August; expect them to drive reserves higher in H2
In one line: China exports slow on low-tech weakness; US, Africa and LatAM slump offsets ASEAN strength
In one line: Japan's real wage turned positive for the first time in seven months, paving the way for an October BoJ hike.
In one line: Japan’s private sector activity posts its fastest rise since February, with broad based services and manufacturing improvements.
In one line: Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI nears 50, boosted largely by domestic demand.
