China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's weak manufacturing PMI should rise after US-Japan trade deal
Services activity rose
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
- The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
- USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
- Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
- The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
- …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
- Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance.
- The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish.
- M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
- A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
- Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
- The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
- We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's worsening producer deflation mainly due to bad weather
Low core consumer inflation reflects weak demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
