- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Up despite being held back by German weakness.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...
- ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
- Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
- Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
- …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
- We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
