- US reciprocal tariffs, ex-VAT inclusion, would raise tariffs for 26% of EZ exports to the US…
- ...But these account for just 4% of total EU exports to the US, so the hit to EZ GDP would be small still.
- Swiss GDP growth picked up in Q4, as we expected and despite soft surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect slower, and fewer, rate cuts than the median market participant.
- We expect higher CPI inflation than the consensus and assume a higher neutral interest rate.
- An upside skew to markets’ inflation forecasts likely drives elevated nominal estimates of neutral.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still no signs of much tariff front running by US firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A very unwelcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Thailand’s 2-speed economy ends 2024 on a somber note
A very unwelcome January leap in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Overall credit growth still relatively sturdy, thanks to robust government bond issuance
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Moderation in upstream food pressures in India is the real deal
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Focus on the hawkish inflation forecasts, rather than the dovish vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Employment stagnates but disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chinese start-up, DeepSeek, shattered the idea that better chips equate to better AI models...
- …Investors panicked, leading to a 6% plunge in TSMC shares after markets opened on February 3.
- The panic was overblown, yet TSMC does face other serious headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A peace deal or ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely to drive near-term relief in Eurozone energy prices.
- The EZ GDP growth slowdown in Q4 was smaller than previously thought...
- ...And EZ productivity growth picked up; or did it? Our ECB call is unchanged either way.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% GDP gain in December.
- The next OBR forecast will be based on lower gilt yields, giving Ms. Reeves back some headroom.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up, strong wage growth, and CPI inflation to jump to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The BRC kickstarts the year with strong growth, we expect it to continue.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade deficit will be held back by high energy prices and President Trump’s tariff threats in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
