Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged in November, in line with the MLF rate last week.
- Policymakers are seemingly using fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, thus allowing confidence to rebuild.
- Monetary policy will probably continue to play an accommodative role—behind fiscal policy—in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
- Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
- ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.
Samuel TombsUK
- Today’s negotiated wage figures likely will show that wage growth eased in Q3, but only marginally.
- Construction output edged up in September; survey data suggest this was reversed in October...
- ...We think the sector will be a drag on growth again in Q4; luckily it accounts for only 5% of EZ GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Opinion polls are pointing to a knife-edge result in this Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina.
- Uncertainty is high, but the near-term outlook is clear: expect an FX sell-off, high inflation and recession.
- The next president will have a difficult job getting the economy back on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
- ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
- Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s Q3 real GDP was weaker than expected, due to slower inventory growth and a rising deflator.
- Private domestic demand remains sluggish, with consumption and investment missing expectations.
- Interest rates will be kept low for longer, effectively delaying the end of the negative rate policy to Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Higher real interest rates will likely keep precautionary savings high, raising the savings rate further...
- ...If it rises gradually beyond our baseline by end- 2025, say to 18%, spending would fall next year...
- ...But it would need to rise much further, and much quicker, for the EZ recession we expect to last longer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The official house price index in September was only 0.7% below its November 2022 peak...
- ...but the first estimate usually is revised down by 1%, and Q3’s rise in mortgage rates hasn’t impacted the data yet.
- The better outlook for mortgage rates, however, hints prices in Q1 will stabilise at 5%, not 6%, below their peak.
UK
- The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
- October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
- PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Fiscal uncertainty back in the spotlight
- Argentina — Anything can happen on Sunday
- Colombia — Resounding defeat for President Petro
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s domestic demand rose at a sluggish pace in October, while production grew faster.
- Upticks in retail sales of autos and mobile phones are bright spots.
- The PBoC injected RMB600B of MLF funds yesterday, enabling government-bond issuance.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- October’s 4.6% rate of CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp, largely due to services prices.
- The core CPI has risen at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of just 2.2% over the past three months...
- ...Some one-off price falls have supported the slowdown, but PPI data suggest it will largelybe sustained.
Samuel TombsUK
- Real rates in the EZ are now rising, even as the ECB stops hiking; we still see room for easing in Q1.
- The private sector’s interest rate costs will rise in 2024, even if the ECB holds or even eases slightly.
- Core inflation in France is now falling, EZ industry is still in recession, and EZ net trade likely rose in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
