Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Argentina’s Milei seems to be grasping orthodoxy, for now, by appointing a centrist as minister of economy.
- The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of deteriorating growth in H1.
- Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 200%.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thai exports and imports in October grew year-over-year—together—for the first time in 13 months.
- But downside risks to exports prevail, and oil effects are largely behind the return of import growth.
- Malaysian inflation cooled further to 1.8% in October, from 1.9%, dropping to a 29-month low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The CNY has appreciated thanks to USD weakness but also a warmer tone in U.S.-China relations.
- The tech SME BSE index has soared almost 50% this month, aligning with China’s rebalancing theme.
- The developer “whitelist” is a crucial step on the long, bumpy path to resolving the property sector’s woes.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Most supermarkets can raise wages by just 4% in 2024 and remain compliant with the National Living Wage...
- ...They no longer need to pay staff a larger-than-usual premium over the NLW, given the rise in unemployment.
- Firms told the Low Pay Commission they doubt they will pass on higher labour costs in 2024 as much as in 2023.
Samuel TombsUK
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials suggest the EUR is currently undervalued against the USD...
- ...Political uncertainty measures suggest it is right where it should be, at 1.10...
- On balance, we think EURUSD will trade between 1.10 and 1.15 for most of 2024.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mexican retail sales volumes fell in September for the third consecutive month, and will continue to decline.
- Leading indicators point to a broad-based slowdown in Q4 and Q1, as tighter financial conditions bite.
- This, coupled with rapidly easing core inflation pressures, will allow Banxico to cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
- We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
- Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ PMI for November indicate that the slowdown in activity eased midway through Q4…
- ...But we still think the Eurozone economy is now in a technical recession.
- ECB accounts shows that policymakers are surprised over how quickly financial conditions are tightening.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The composite PMI edged above 50 in November, for the first time since July; consumer demand is reviving...
- ...Firms, however, are still reducing employment slightly, and output prices are rising more slowly than a year ago.
- By May, the labour market will have loosened and CPI inflation fallen enough for the MPC to start to cut rates.
Samuel TombsUK
- The OBR judges the Autumn Statement measures lift aggregate demand relative to supply by 0.1% at most.
- Fiscal policy remains set to be tightened substantially next year, almost as much as previously planned.
- Mr. Hunt might cut more taxes in March, but the rise in gilt yields after his NI announcement will instil caution.
Samuel TombsUK
- Europe is sitting pretty on energy so far this winter; prices are low and gas inventories are full to the brim.
- The current trend in oil and gas prices indicates EZ inflation could hit 1.5% by the middle of 2024.
- Asia and North America have taken over from Russia as marginal energy suppliers to Europe.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s gradual recovery will continue in Q4, but GDP remains below its pre-pandemic trend...
- ...Subpar growth and limited inflation pressures will allow the BCCh to keep cutting rates in H1.
- Activity will gather speed next year, but El Niño and geopolitical risks are key threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
- ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
- The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s 20-day exports continue to recover, but growth in shipment values slowed in November.
- Intra-regional exports are falling, bar those to China; Vehicles exports remain the main upward driver.
- We expect Korean exports to recover only gradually on a soft global outlook and uneven chip demand.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Public borrowing in October exceeded the OBR’s March Budget forecast for the first time this year.
- Revisions by the OBR to its economic assumptions likely will not lower the borrowing forecast materially.
- Mr. Hunt’s fiscal rules don’t rule out tax cuts, but he likely will delay most until after the election to buy some votes.
Samuel TombsUK
- Negotiated wage growth in the EZ accelerated slightly in Q3, likely boosted by Germany.
- Market expectations and ECB communication are now wildly at odds; something has to give soon.
- We still see scope for easing early next year, but this call depends on a shift in language in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
- ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
- No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Libertarian Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidential election; the less bad option for the battered country.
- Argentina’s prospects will improve if Congress allows Milei to ‘take a hacksaw’ to the state.
- Brazil’s economy struggled in Q3, opening the door to bigger rate cuts if fiscal pragmatism prevails.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
- ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
- We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
