Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance.
- The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish.
- M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn.
- Brazil’s weakness in industry and services highlights the growing drag from tighter financial conditions.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff move threatens exports, investment and already-fragile economic momentum.
- Mexico has also been hit by the tariff noise, but markets are still betting on a negotiated outcome.
- Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes registered no month-to-month increase in May.
- Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
- Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the recent rate cut could help Q3
- A 30% US tariff on EU exports would send the EZ economy into recession in the second half of 2025.
- Markets don’t believe Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, but a US-EU escalation cycle is still a big near-term risk.
- The ECB will hold fire in July unless it is absolutely certain a 30% tariff is coming over the summer.
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
- In one line: Recovery stalls as financial headwinds mount.
- In one line: Recovery stalls as financial headwinds mount.
- In one line: Modest, on-and-off deflation looks set to be the theme for H2.
In one line: Driven by a snap-back in services.
- In one line: Industrial sector stabilises, but outlook remains weak.
- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
- Disinflation resumes in Mexico, but core pressures linger, led by services.
- External weakness weighs on manufacturing, but interest rate cuts offer relief.
- Construction rebounds, but trade tensions and weak US demand are a drag on industrial recovery.
- Front-loaded exports from EM Asia will start to correct in H2, even if US “reciprocal” tariffs soften.
- A few economies are much less exposed, though; we note a couple of sector-specific upside risks.
- Longer term, we maintain that EM Asia exports will have a brighter future, supporting their markets.
- Valuation effects explain 60% of China’s foreign exchange reserves rise in June.
- A rush to ship exports ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline likely contributed to the rise in reserves.
- Beijing’s moderate 2030 consumption growth target offers clues about China’s growth strategy.
- Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
- …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
- Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.
- A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
- But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
- We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.
- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
In one line: Reversing most of April’s jump.
- In one line: Cooling inflation meets new headwinds.
In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer.
