Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Trade, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: Tariff front-running no more. 

17 July 2025 LatAm Political Update Tariffs meet domestic political crosswinds

• Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
• Mexico —  Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
• Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs

17 July 2025 US Monitor PPI data show tariffs are inflationary, but only for goods

• PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
• The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
• Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

16 July 2025 US Monitor Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July

The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...

...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.

CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.  

PM Datanote: US CPI, June

A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.

16 July 2025 China+ Monitor China's steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation

• .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
• …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
• Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.

16 July 2025 Global Monitor The EZ would fall into recession with a 30% US trade tariff

• US -  Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply
• EUROZONE - A 30% US tariff would send the EZ economy into recession in H2
• UK -  Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth
• CHINA+ - China’s ‘glass half-full’ money and credit data
• EM ASIA - BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expectedEM ASIA -  
• LATAM - Brazil’s recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount

16 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Argentina's inflation falls and policy anchors hold firm; BCRP holds rates

• Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
• Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
• BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.

16 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More cuts to our already-soft inflation forecasts for India

• India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
• …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
• We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively. 

16 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ manufacturing slowed in Q2; will tariffs pull the rug in Q3?

• Industrial production in the Eurozone slowed in Q2 after a breakneck Q1; what awaits in Q3?
• Leading indicators for manufacturing are mixed; the output PMI has been the best so far this year. 
• A reversal of tariff front-running will weigh on output in H2, regardless of what tariffs the EU ends up with.

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

• The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
• The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
• US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, June

• In one line: A forgetful Q2, overall.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: Solid rebound, even factoring-in jump in Ireland. 

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, July 2025

In one line: Expectations at a 41-month high. 

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 July 2025: China's real GDP steady, with steeper deflation

China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022

15 July 2025 US Monitor Retail slowdown likely continued in June, as headline sales flat-lined

• We think headline retail sales were little changed in June, after falling in April and May.
• A small price-driven increase in control sales was likely mostly offset by another fall in auto sales.
• Homebase are roughly consistent with 150K for July private payrolls, but we prefer to trust other indicators.

Global Datanote: CPI, India, June

• In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, June

• In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.