- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Non-manufacturing activity slows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
TARIFF SHOCK WORSENS WORST-CASE SCENARIO...
- …SO FASTER RATE CUTS LOOM
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
FACTORY ASIA—EX-CHINA—IS DOWN, BUT NOT OUT
- …MORE CUTS TO COME FROM THE RBI AND THE BSP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.
Samuel TombsUS
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
- …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
- Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Eurozone economy was stronger in the first quarter than both we and the ECB expected.
- The pick-up in growth will prove short-lived, as trade uncertainty bites down on investment.
- Country data point to EZ inflation at 2.1% in April; we still see a chunky upside surprise in the core.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with two members favouring a 50bp reduction.
- The MPC will likely judge that lower market expectations for Bank Rate are mostly warranted.
- High uncertainty will sap growth, and a new disinflationary scenario should support faster rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Down but pointing to higher inflation expectations.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
