- In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tight financial conditions are a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Growth in compensation-per-employee and the ECB’s wage tracker are easing…
- ...in line with other measures of EZ wage growth, pointing to a sustained slowdown this year.
- We doubt that wage growth will fall to close to 1%, as implied by the ECB’s wage tracker.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 28K month-to-month fall in February payrolls, which will eventually be revised up.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.4% in January, although it could easily round up to 4.5%.
- Pay growth is proving stubborn; we expect January private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.4% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Surging, thanks to Germany’s “whatever it takes” moment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: REC’s recovery indicates that the labour market is stabilising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Solid rise in industrial output, but net trade remains subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - February payroll growth was solid, but a slowdown looms this spring
- EUROZONE - A look on the bright side for GDP growth in the Eurozone
- UK - CPI preview: on the cusp of 3.1%, as core inflation ticks up
- CHINA+ - Premier Li announces step-up in fiscal support; still room for more
- EM ASIA - Ignore Vietnam’s first trade deficit in years; US tariff front-running is here
- LATAM - Trade, inflation and economic activity risks under Trump 2.0
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Services production was up sharply in Q4, thanks to continued strength in IT services.
- Surveys remain positive on the outlook for services, and the sector will lead the increase in GDP in Q1.
- Our nowcast model is looking ugly, but we reiterate our call for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth, for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
- Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
- Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s export growth really accelerated in February and was almost double consensus…
- …Driven by strong growth in exports to the US, with some recovery in demand from China.
- Headline inflation eased because of Lunar New Year base effects; food and housing remain stubborn.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- China’s CPI fell more than the market expected, dragged down by weak food and services inflation.
- PPI deflation eased slightly; NDRC announced a cut to steel production and measures to curb ‘Nei Juan’.
- Japan’s full-time regular base pay growth hit a 32-year high, giving the BoJ confidence to normalise rates.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
