- In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Industry supported EZ GDP in Q1, as did the labour market.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A strong first quarter for the Swiss economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
- But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
- A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
- Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services…
- …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
- The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
- Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Switzerland’s economy was on a tear before the trade-tariff shock hit.
- Strong growth is not inflationary, and is now slowing; the SNB will cut in June, taking rates below zero.
- EZ GDP was revised down in Q1 and will also slow ahead, but the unemployment rate will stay low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
- We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
- We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A larger-than-expected Ramadan bump in Indonesian sales that isn’t expected to last
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
- But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves.
- Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesia’s March retail sales report was flattered by Ramadan effects; beware the slide in confidence.
- Malaysian sales were also strong in March, at 6.6% year-over-year, suggesting strong Q1 consumption.
- Indian WPI inflation dropped to a 13-month low in April, thanks in large part to waning food pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
- Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue
- Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
