Pantheon Publications

22 July 2025 UK Monitor The UK has an inflation problem; expectations are deanchoring

• Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
• Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
• The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.

July 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...

• ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, June

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, July

Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, May / June 2025

• In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, May 2025

• In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2025

• In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2025

• In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2025

• In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

• In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: Down, but big revision to the April data suggests Q2 was good.

Global Datanote: CPI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 July 2025: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows

Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, July 12

Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, June

Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September. 

21 July 2025 US Monitor Will the unwinding of June's jump in education jobs depress Q3 payrolls?

• The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
• June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
• A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.

21 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Latin America's currency rebound aids rate cuts, but tariff fears grow

• Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
• Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
• Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.

21 July 2025 Emerging Asia Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying

• Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
• Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
• Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.