Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 February 2026

Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December

11 February 2026 US Monitor December's soft sales hint at further consumer weakness ahead

• December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4. 
• Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
• Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.

11 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai election: political event risk averted, but no cure for economy

• Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
• …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
• We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.

12 February 2026 China+ Monitor Long and bumpy reflation path for China's households and producers

• China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
• Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
• The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.

11 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor The trades that follow from our EZ economic forecasts

• We retain a steepening bias in our forecast for short-term interest rates, less so in Bunds.
• The trend is your friend in EZ 10-year yield spreads, and we think it will remain so this year.
• Germany’s MDAX equity index will outperform further this year as the domestic economy recovers.

11 February 2026 UK Monitor CPI preview 1: base effects, energy and airfares to lower inflation

• We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
• Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
• But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.

February 2026 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICE INFLATION JUMPS IN NOVEMBER...

• ...AND BUYER DEMAND HAS FURTHER TO IMPROVE IN 2026

10 February 2026 US Monitor Pantheon Macro US Monitor: Retail sales likely resilient in December but not for much longer

• We look for a 0.6% rise in December headline retail sales, underpinned by solid auto and control sales...
• That’s consistent with consumers’ spending rising by just over 3% in Q4...
• ...But soft income growth, depressed confidence and a rock-bottom saving rate point to weakness ahead.

10 February 2026 LatAm Monitor Core pressures persist in Mexico; Colombian inflation reaccelerates

• Mexican inflation stays contained but firmer core inflation justifies Banxico’s cautious pause.
• Non-core disinflation offsets tax-driven core stickiness leaving policy easing gradual in Q2.
• Colombia’s January CPI surge reflects the minimum-wage hike and the stalling convergence to target.

10 February 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s

• Taiwan’s exports soared by 69.9% in January, with AI demand still overwhelming supply…
• ...though base effects, Lunar New Year distortion and less front-loading point to cooling ahead.
• AI demand could soften near term, due to lack of data centre readiness and delayed deployment.

10 February 2026 China+ Monitor PM Takaichi's election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue

• Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
• She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
• On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.

10 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor Is it safe to buy carry in French government bonds?

• The 2026 budget in France aims for a modest improvement in the deficit, to 5.0% of GDP. 
• A slowdown in tax revenue is a key risk for French budget consolidation efforts this year…
• …monthly fiscal revenues were rising briskly as of Q4 25; markets will scrutinise these data closely in 2026. 

10 February 2026 UK Monitor CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast

• The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
• Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
• ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, January 2026

• In one line: Export growth surge never seems to stop.

EZ Datanote: Sentix Investor Confidence, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Investors think a recovery is finally underway.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 February 2026: Japan's regular pay growth steady

In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, December 2025

In one line: Year-end slump in Spanish industrial output.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade Balance, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Production stung by falling auto output, but still managed a decent Q4. 

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, February 2026

• In one line: The likely long pause is here. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 February 2026

The RBI’s likely long pause is here
Don’t buy Vietnam’s Tet-distorted January trade headlines
A more than decent start to 2026 for retail sales in Vietnam
Huge healthcare hike in January last year drops out of Vietnamese inflation
Nascent signs of a recovery in Philippine sales