- The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
- Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
- China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
This housing market recovery will be slow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Something funny in the data; on course for a rise in Q1 either way.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hit by a fall in the goods surplus; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP rose at a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1, powered primarily by consumers’ spending.
- Data released before the GDP estimate next Thursday, however, could shift our forecast materially.
- Home sales likely still have further to fall in Q2, despite their big drop in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity saw a solid improvement in February, as private consumption gathers speed.
- Increased fiscal uncertainty and a cautious US Fed complicate Brazil’s economic and rates outlook.
- The minutes of the last BCCh policy meeting strike a more dovish tone, but things have changed recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
- All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
- Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to the year, but downside risks are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Core inflation will fall further in coming months, but rising oil prices is a threat to the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Sharp drop in pharmaceuticals drags on Singaporean exports
Indonesian retail sales benefit from an election pop in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Japanese exports grow sturdily in March, lifted by strong Chinese demand and a weak yen.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoK stays put as inflation remains elevated, no surprise to the market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Ignore the fall in the LEI in March—Q1 GDP growth will be brisk—but it should become a better guide soon.
- Look out for an above-consensus rise in jobless claims today as Easter distortions unwind; the trend is rising.
- February’s surge in existing home sales looks like an anomaly; expect a plunge in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Revised fiscal forecasts presented to Congress
- Mexico — Recap of the first presidential debate
- Colombia — Concerns over Petro’s populist measures
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
