Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Still on track for a final rate cut in September.
- In one line: Core inflation softens, allowing further monetary policy normalisation.
In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.
In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.
In one line: Nothing in here to suggest an ECB rate cut today.
In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.
In one line: The German economy was barely growing in July.
In one line: Not much to see; near-term downside risks persist.
PMIs indicate a decent start to Q3 for India’s economy
US front-loading in Thailand is still going strong
In one line: manufacturing index slammed by falling output; July should be low point after US-Japan trade deal
Japan's weak manufacturing PMI should rise after US-Japan trade deal
Services activity rose
In one line: Income expectations are firming, but so are saving intentions.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
In one line: Up, but only to a four-month high.
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
- The ECB stood pat, as expected; Ms. Lagarde turned hawkish during the press conference.
- We still think inflation below 2% over the summer will be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- EZ PMIs for July point to resilience, but also continued fragile growth in the core economies.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
