Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: An increase thanks to German rebound.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The economy has never dodged recession in the last 45 years with unemployment expectations so high…
- …But WARN data, Indeed job postings and hiring intentions have deteriorated less dramatically.
- Consumers think tariffs will boost inflation by about 2pp; the reality won’t be that bad.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s retail sector is struggling as spending weakens amid uncertainty and higher interest rates.
- The service sector is slowing; high borrowing costs and softening labour-market conditions are drags.
- The trade war forces central banks to adopt a cautious approach, delaying a faster regional economic upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rural consumption alone cannot underpin India’s recovery indefinitely; urban demand is a must…
- …Encouragingly, household balance sheets have come a long way from their 2023 low point.
- Wage growth and formal-sector hiring are finding their feet too, supporting the rise in spending plans.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s broad credit growth rose in February, on the back of strong government-bond issuance.
- The budgeted expansion of fiscal stimulus this year should sustain vigorous government borrowing.
- Private-sector credit demand is likely to revive gradually, given the haz y property market outlook.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss inflation has fallen thus far in Q1, so the SNB will trim rates this week...
- ...But another jumbo 50bp cut is highly unlikely; we look for a 25bp cut, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The Swiss monetary easing cycle likely ends there, with inflation set to rise over the coming months.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP is trending up by 0.8% month-to-month annualised, despite January’s small output fall.
- Break-adjusted five-year inflation expectations hit a record high since 2009; the MPC must be cautious.
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep interest rates on hold this Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Industrial output slumps further; outlook remains weak.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Short-term volatility as stamp duty relief ends in April, but house prices will still rise 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Retail sales growth remains healthy, driven by strong real wage growth and rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Almost reversing the jump in December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% in February, lifting the inflation rate to 2.8%, from 2.6%.
- Markets expect 75bp of FOMC easing in 2025, but most members will keep projecting 50bp next week.
- Forward-looking components of the PPI, however, suggest services inflation will slow further this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s inflation in February hit its highest rate since 2023, as underlying pressures are persisting, for now.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in January, with trade-war uncertainty weighing heavily.
- The manufacturing sector is struggling as US tariffs threaten Mexico’s economic backbone and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s shockingly low February CPI was no surprise to us; now expect near-term stability in food CPI…
- …Look for the consensus to move closer to our 3.8% average CPI forecast for 2025; an April cut is a go.
- IP growth rebounded strongly in January, pointing to an early manufacturing cushion for Q1 growth.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
- We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
- Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
