Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.
In one line: Sentiment rose, despite slowing demand
- In one line: Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation.
- In one line: Slump in export growth should soon bottom-out.
The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia
- In one line: H2 surge in manufacturing ends on a soft note.
Yet more grim news on the labor market.
Manufacturing is surviving rather than thriving.
Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
In one line: Q3's strength is unlikely to be sustained.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
- Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
- …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs ended the year on a positive note, but thanks to short-term effects.
- The construction PMI rose to its highest since March, but due to mild winter weather rather than stimulus.
- Policymakers will monitor the quasi-fiscal investment stimulus, while making only minor policy tweaks.
- The hawkish shift in the ECB’s December forecasts has increased the risk of easing in early 2026.
- Growth in Spain was revised down slightly, with inflation staying sticky at the end of 2025.
- EZ M1 growth is stabilising at a modest pace, while manufacturing PMIs signal downside risk to industry.
- The story of 2025 was growth averaging close to potential but inflation much higher than expected.
- We see similar trends in 2026, with growth rebounding in Q1 and inflation proving persistent.
- We expect the MPC to end its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bp Bank Rate reduction in April.
GROWTH AND INFLATION RISKS SHIFT DOWN...
- …BUT WE STILL THINK INFLATION WILL PROVE STICKY
- We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
- But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
- EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway.
- Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high.
- EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.
