- LatAm central banks face a complex external environment; vigilance and policy adjustments are needed.
- The BCRP remained cautious amid global risks and strong economic activity, despite falling inflation.
- Brazil’s economic activity is slowing despite initial optimism in its early-2025 performance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian export growth surprised greatly to the upside in February, leaping to 14.1%…
- …But base effects did more heavy lifting; monthly momentum and commodity support are lacking.
- Indonesia’s exports aren’t seeing any US front- loading, unlike some of its neighbours; that’s good.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Germany needs a budget deficit of 4% of GDP over three years to lift defence spending quickly to 3.5%.
- Defence and infrastructure spending require more Bunds; €100B per year over the next decade?
- Rising uncertainty will weigh on Bund yields in Q2, but they’re right to fear the new fiscal plans.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Bank of England is far too sanguine about elevated long-term consumer inflation expectations.
- Five-year-ahead expectations hit a new high in Q1, adjusting for a methodology break in the BoE survey.
- Public satisfaction in the BoE’s handling of inflation remains depressed, hindering its credibility.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
SURVEYS SIGNAL A BUOYANT HOUSING MARKET...
- ...WE FORECAST PRICES TO RISE 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's local governments get the memo on boosting domestic demand
Consumption makes modest improvements, as the trade storm looms
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Blame mainly softer fuel & power deflation; headline disinflation is just around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Better, but the overall picture is still one of subpar growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: February export pop isn’t so black and white.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Indonesia’s February export pop isn’t so black and white
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line:GDP is on track to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC's forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tight financial conditions remain a drag at the core level.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Robust government bond issuance pushes up credit growth, despite lacklustre private sector credit demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Rebounding; likely escaping recession in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unchanged from initial estimate; will rebound in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downward revision to HICP rate signals bigger fall in EZ headline in February.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: On hold amid rising global uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold amid rising global uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
