Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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BI CUTS IN JULY; NEW BOT CHIEF TO RESTART EASING
- …EARLY Q2 GDP RESULTS ALL SEE UPSIDE SURPRISES
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
- H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
- China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
- The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.
- EZ GDP edged higher in Q2, helped by Portugal, Spain and France; Germany and Italy stumbled.
- We’re slightly more upbeat on investment, but we still see Eurozone exports in goods falling by 1% in H2.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in July, threatening our dovish forecast for the EZ HICP.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
In one line: Near-term inflation expectations are easing.
In one line: Another big increase in Spanish GDP.
- US - The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain
- EUROZONE - White smoke in Scotland: the EU and US strike a trade deal
- UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
- CHINA+ - BoJ official hints at brightening growth outlook after trade deal
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation plateaus as demand softens and disinflation forces build
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
EZ ECONOMY SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF TARIFF THREATS…
- …SUB-2% SUMMER INFLATION WILL GET A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT OVER THE LINE
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
