Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, March

Disappointing credit data point to undercooked domestic demand, despite fiscal stimulus 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 April 2024 China+ Monitor China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan

• China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
• After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
• The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's uneven recovery set to make only halting progress

• China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
• A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
• Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 April 2024: Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Japan's broad wage growth still lacklustre

Duncan WrigleyChina+

8 April 2024 China+ Monitor BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures

• The BoK will probably hold the policy rate steady on Friday, amid stubborn inflation and KRW pressure.
• The March manufacturing PMI points to sluggish domestic demand but rising cost pressures.
• Exports are riding a firming rebound, thanks to high-end- chip demand related to AI.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2024: PMIs point to services buoyancy in China & Japan

PMIs point to services sector buoyancy in China and Japan

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, March

Chinese manufacturing demand improves after the Lunar New Year holiday 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, March

Korean exports propelled by resurgent semiconductor shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 April 2024: Post-holiday bump in Caixin and Korean PMIs

Post-holiday improvement in Caixin, Korean PMIs; Japanese Tankan fades; Korean exports sustain recovery trend

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 April 2024 China+ Monitor Hopeful signs of a gradually broadening recovery in China

• China’s March official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs were both above 50 for the first time since September.
• A strong industrial sector is generating demand for business services too.
• But the lacklustre labour market and dismal property sector will limit the speed of China’s recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

March 2024 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK

- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 March 2024 China+ Monitor FDI into China has weathered the storm, but the waters are still choppy

• China’s foreign direct investment seems to have passed its lowest point, hit in late 2023.
• Top policymakers are rolling out the red carpet to tempt foreign CEOs back to China, as it recovers.
• But geopolitical tensions will limit the foreign investment rebound, especially in high-tech sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's wage-price spiral still in its infancy; BoJ admits it moved early

• Japan’s much-heralded wage-price spiral is likely a way off, despite the end of the negative rate policy.
• Household spending dived in January, while consumer inflation is on a cooling trend.
• A PBoC deputy governor on Thursday was relaxed about slowing credit and broad money growth.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Flash manufacturing PMI, Japan, March

Modest improvement in still-dull Japanese manufacturing activity reading

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 March 2024: Flash PMIs points to improved activity

Japan's robust services sector contrasts with drab manufacturing activity; Exports still strong, despite headline dip

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 March 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's sunny service sector clouded by insipid manufacturing activity

• Japan’s March flash manufacturing PMI points to still-tepid activity, though improving modestly.
• The service sector continues to shine brightly, albeit based narrowly on tourism and finance.
• A jump in service-sector input costs is a worrying sign of persistently elevated inflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 March 2024: industry powers on, as retail sales slow

China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's China's industrial sector strength contrasting with tepid consumption

• China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
• ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
• Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, February

Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come

• China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
• Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
• The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.

Duncan WrigleyChina+