Pantheon Publications

5 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep on hold amid fiscal and external uncertainties

• Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
• Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
• We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.

5 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Hawkish inflation read in Switzerland; is a recession ahead?

• Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
• ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs. 
• We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.

5 August 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: 3.7% in July as motor fuels prices jump

• We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
• We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
• We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, July 2025

In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance. 

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, July, 2025

• In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline. 

Global Datanote: Employment, US, July, 2025

• In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

PM Datanote: US Employment, July 2025

Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, June, 2025

• In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, June, 2025

• In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, June, 2025

• In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes. 

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, July 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, July 2025

• In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, July 2025

• In one line: Discount the base effects lifting food inflation; the headline should now stabilise.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, June 2025

In one line: Export growth is in for a weaker H2.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, July

• In one line: Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 August 2025

Early US trade deals in July help ASEAN manufacturing find its feet, for now
Indonesian export growth is in for a weaker H2
Discount the base effects lifting Indonesian food inflation; the headline should now stabilise

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China’s manufacturing sector rocked by trade uncertainty