- February’s money and credit data show consumer caution fading, which should support GDP growth.
- Mortgage approvals hit an 18-month high, and lumpsum repayments fell to their lowest since May 2020.
- Declines in mortgage interest rates this year will boost the housing market and spending further.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The JOLTS quit rate flagged the surge in wages during the Great Rehiring. It now points to a sharp slowdown.
- Vehicle sales were probably little changed in March, suggesting a drag on Q1 consumption growth.
- A nascent recovery in manufacturing is finding its feet, but core goods prices look set to continue falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We now see GDP growth in Singapore rising to 2.6% in Q1, after 2.2% in Q4…
- …Supported by the ongoing recovery in external demand and higher tourist arrivals.
- We’ve also upgraded our 2024 growth forecast to 2.2%, from 1.7%, underpinned by healthier trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
- But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
- Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
- Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
- A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Improvement in money supply continues; Italian business confidence rises & German unemployment will climb further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
8% GROWTH IN INDIA AN UNSUSTAINABLE FACADE
- …TAIWAN’S SURPRISE HIKE SHOULD BE A ‘ONE-AND-DONE’
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Expect a 0.3% core PCE, but surprises are possible; it’s impossible to replicate all the BEA’s methods.
- Quarterly real consumption growth looks on course for a meaningful slowdown in Q1.
- Governor Waller is in no rush to ease, but he is ignoring clear warning signs in the labor market numbers.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Consistent with a rise in EZ GDP this quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
