Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- A stabilising labour market and sticky underlying inflation support out call for no more rate cuts.
- Hawkish details in the MPC minutes raise the bar to another cut this year.
- Awful public finance data reduce the chance that Chancellor Reeves will soften duty hikes next year.
In one line: A decent start to Q3, but the carry-over is still negative.
The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.
- Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
- A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
- Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.
- Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
- Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
- Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.
- It will be a close call but we see more reasons for the SNB to cut its key policy rate next week than to hold.
- Inflation is low and set to fall, while other tools will not be as effective in fighting deflationary pressures.
- We look for the Swiss central bank to cut by 25bp to -0.25%, leaving it the lowest policy rate in the world.
- The MPC kept rates on hold at September’s meeting, as consensus and the markets expected.
- The minutes were fractionally more hawkish than in August; we continue to expect no more cuts this year.
- The pace of quantitative tightening will be slowed to £70B in 2025/26, from £100B in 2024/25.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
- The median FOMC participant expects to ease by a further 50bp this year, but several envisage less.
- The risks to the FOMC’s unemployment forecast are skewed to the upside; rates will fall to 3% next year.
- Last week’s surge in mortgage refinancing is unlikely to endure; new rates are still too high.
- Brazil — Noise driven by US tariffs and Bolsonaro fallout
- Mexico — Sovereignty, trade and security
- Colombia — Tensions rise ahead of 2026 vote
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- Hong Kong Policy Address proposes to strengthen technology ties with the mainland and boost growth.
- Japan’s annual export growth fell for the fourth straight month, but monthly momentum improves.
- BoJ will keep rates on hold this week, but we expect it to resume its rate hike cycle in late October.
- We think a rebound in inflation will now close the window on further monetary policy easing.
- Risks are asymmetric, however; the ECB will either cut or hold in the next three-to-six months.
- A near-term downside surprise in core inflation and further euro strength will prompt doves to pounce.
- Lower airfare inflation offset higher food and motor fuels, leaving CPI inflation at 3.8% in August.
- Underlying services inflation accelerated to 4.3%, from 4.2% in July, where it will stay until the spring.
- We expect CPI inflation to hit 4.0% in September—with upside risk—and then ease only slowly.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: Lifted by rebound in equities.
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
