Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies.
- Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year.
- Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
- Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
- The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
- We are revising up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain, to reflect solid retail sales and industrial output data…
- …Spanish GDP likely rose by a punchy 0.7% in Q4, a touch better than in the third quarter.
- We still see an increase in Q4 growth in Italy, as the balance between net trade and inventories improves.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
In one line: New year, newfound optimism.
- Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside in December, as goods deflation deepened and core pressures eased…
- …A firmer CLP and slowing wages are anchoring inflation, leaving policy rates close to neutral.
- Low inflation, neutral rates and FX management mean BCRP is well positioned as election risks build.
- Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
- Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.
- US Greenland ambitions will accelerate EU defence spending and raise the risk of an EU-US trade war.
- The EU economic ‘bazooka’ would likely be unholstered if the US moves to take over Greenland.
- An intra-NATO shooting match is highly unlikely, but tensions will ratchet up before a resolution is found.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in December, but hiring will improve in 2026.
- The LFS unemployment rate will drop to 5.0% in November, but that still likely overplays job weakness.
- Wage inflation will moderate in December, but surveys suggest the pace of pay growth is flattening.
Recovering sales growth in Indonesia hiding big holes under the surface
Overstating the gloom, but a downbeat message nonetheless.
Signs of stabilization, but big headwinds remain.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
In one line: Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- In one line: Few reasons for builders to be more optimistic in 2026, so the construction PMI will remain weak.
