Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Caixin PMI reports falling export orders
Korean exports hold up thanks to front-loading, but domestic demand sags
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
- Mexico’s industrial and service sectors rebounded in Q2, offsetting weak agriculture.
- The US tariff extension brings near-term relief, supporting manufacturing, exports and capex.
- Domestic policy volatility, weak sentiment and a real wage slowdown still weigh on broader momentum.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI returned to the black in July, just, for the first time since “Liberation Day ”…
- …But leading indicators remain bleak; the US’s ‘final’ tariffs are at least broadly a win for EM Asia.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore paused and set a high bar for more easing in the short run.
- China’s July manufacturing PMIs were buffeted by headwinds from trade risk and bad weather.
- But sentiment improved slightly, showing business confidence in new products and markets.
- The dipping construction PMI partly reflects a downshift in local-government fiscal stimulus.
- The July HICP has raised the bar significantly for a September ECB rate cut…
- …But we won’t give up on our call until we see inflation data for August.
- A fall in core inflation, volatile markets, and US economic fragility could still pull a cut over the line.
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN AMID POLICY AND RISK…
- …DISINFLATION IS PROGRESSING, BUT GROWTH REMAINS FRAGILE
- - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
- - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
In one line: EZ inflation in July was not the dovish slam dunk we were expecting.
- In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.
In one line: Holding steady at a record low.
- In one line: Retail strength holds; mining hit by temporary setback.
In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.
