- Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
- The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane.
- February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The EUR has risen against the USD ever since the EU and German fiscal announcements in March.
- Fundamentals, such as interest rate differentials, point to further strength ahead.
- We look for EURUSD to reach 1.10 at end-2025, and 1.15 at end-2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
- OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
- Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- - CHINA CRANKS UP FISCAL SUPPORT; LIKELY MORE TO COME
- - BOJ SHIFTING TO HAWKISH BIAS AS FOOD INFLATION RISES
- - KOREA CHIP EXPORTS UNDER COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- US - The FOMC’s fears of rising unemployment will be borne out
- EUROZONE - This is the end of the road for the SNB’s easing cycle
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands pat in March on external trade policy considerations
- EM ASIA - JCI sell-off putting more pressure on BI to cut sooner rather than later
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM tightens policy again but will slow the pace in May
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The consumer surveys have deteriorated sharply, but probably overstate the incoming slowdown.
- Air passenger numbers are 4% below their peak, matching the drawdown before the 2001 recession...
- ...But similar declines also were seen in 2005 and 2006, without recession immediately ensuing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Banxico can press on with further easing tomorrow thanks to muted inflation and softening growth.
- Weakening domestic demand signals room for rate cuts, as policymakers monitor external risks.
- The MXN rebound and subdued core pressures support gradual easing, despite lingering threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s central bank held rates at 2.000%; entirely expected as inflation remains elevated.
- Retail sales fell in February, as we expected, due to the changing timing of Lunar New Year...
- ...Seasonally adjusted numbers show growth, but much of this is boosted by inflation.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Germany’s IFO business climate index rose in March, mirroring the jump in the PMI…
- ...The surveys still point to recession risk in Q1, after the GDP fall in Q4; we doubt that will be the case…
- ...The surveys have underestimated GDP growth in recent quarters, and are likely doing so again in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Better growth and rising inflation implied in the March PMI raise the risk of only one more rate cut this year.
- The PMI now agrees with other surveys that employment is stalling rather than cratering.
- The PMI is signalling a small increase in underlying services inflation pressure.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weak economic activity curbing inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
PBoC prioritising RMB defence over rate cuts, after decent activity data in the first two months
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Up thanks to rebound in German manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Up thanks to rebound in German manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Up less than expected but still consistent with a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Up less than expected but still consistent with a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Rebounding but still pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
