Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Can the EU and Denmark find an off-ramp for Mr. Trump in Greenland that avoids war? We hope so.
- The downward revision to EZ inflation in December underscores dovish risk to ECB policy bets in Q1.
- We see EZ inflation falling to 1.6% in January, though these data are a wild card due to one-off effects.
- The Reform Party is well ahead in the polls, and Sir Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular with voters.
- A drubbing for the government at the local elections in May could trigger a Labour leadership challenge.
- Most roads lead to further fiscal U-turns, increasing the risk of looser fiscal policy.
In one line: The probability of further ECB easing is underpriced.
In one line: The probability of further ECB easing is underpriced.
In one line: China's Q4 GDP reports torpid domestic demand versus vibrant industrial output
- In one line: Activity rebounds in November, but momentum remains weak.
- In one line: Activity rebounds in November, but momentum remains weak.
AI boom saves Malaysian exports
Malaysian inflation shows a surprise rise
- US import prices rose by three percentage points less than global import prices in the year to October.
- Foreign manufacturers of autos and alcoholic drinks have slashed prices to remain competitive.
- Auto manufacturers will rebuild margins in 2026, but other supply chains will adapt to cut tariff exposure.
- Household spending gains traction in Mexico, while capex remains weak on policy and trade uncertainty.
- The USMCA review adds volatility, delaying the capex recovery and reinforcing consumption-led growth.
- November’s activity rebound stabilises growth in Brazil, but tight financial conditions still constrain its recovery.
- Malaysia’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.7%, largely because of export manufacturing...
- …This bolsters our call for the BNM to hold rates this Thursday, saving policy space for later.
- We think economic growth should be stronger in 2026, but this is contingent on the AI boom.
- The Bank of Korea cited excessive KRW volatility as its reason for holding last week, while growth is improving.
- Rising upside risks to growth and inflation, plus FX volatility, are driving a return to a neutral policy stance.
- We still expect a final rate cut in H2, due to uncertainty over global trade policy and the AI cycle.
- The Mercosur trade deal is an opportunity for Europe to regain regional influence it has ceded to China…
- …We think EU farmers are better off than without the deal, despite their continued opposition.
- The plunge in German inflation in December is confirmed; how far will inflation fall in January?
- Last week brought evidence that the economy has rebounded smartly from the annual Budget circus.
- GDP growth is on track to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, 10bp more than the MPC assumed.
- We look for a 25K month-to-month payroll fall in December, and inflation to tick up to 3.3%.
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
- In one line: Their latest slip aside, exports to the US are seeing some consolidation.
- In one line: Retail stabilizing after prolonged weakness.
- In one line: Loosening credit availability will help growth and falling secured credit defaults point to limited household distress.
- In one line: The headline trade balance will improve as falls in erratic components unwind.
