Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Stabilising, with mixed leading indicators.
In one line: China's lower growth target signals priority for structural adjustment over short-term growth
- In one line: Growth rebounded in the new year and price pressures remain strong
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI suggests activity is stable, but surging energy prices will hit sentiment.
- In one line: Strong credit flows and falling saving suggest the UK was rebounding strongly in the New Year.
- In one line: The housing market remains stable according to Nationwide, but activity will strengthen over 2026.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.
In one line: More hawkish data for EZ short-term bonds to digest.
- Tax refunds are up only 10% year-over-year to date, far short of the near-30% rise we expected...
- ...But a meaningful boost to growth in consumers’ spending in H1 still looks likely.
- Layoff indicators remain subdued, but the renewed fall in NFIB hiring intentions implies weak job gains.
- Higher oil prices divide exporters and importers, as markets weigh the duration of Middle East tensions.
- The oil shock and a weak Imacec highlight Chile’s fragile growth, as manufacturing struggles…
- …Rate cuts, copper strength and fiscal consolidation shape the outlook, though geopolitics is the key risk.
- BNM held rates at 2.75%, as expected, but its statement carried an unusually cautious tone.
- Singapore’s January retail sales were weaker than expected, but highly distorted by Lunar New Year.
- We raise our 2026 CPI call for the Philippines and cut that on Thailand; the difference is fuel policy.
- Premier Li set a lower growth target for 2026, as we expected, to put the focus on structural adjustment…
- …China is reliant on export growth, but that could be in jeopardy given geopolitical tensions and trade risks.
- Korea would be more vulnerable than Japan and China to a prolonged oil-price spike.
- EZ retail sales dipped in January but likely will be revised higher; French industry rebounded.
- Mr. Trump’s threats to cut off Spanish exports lack teeth; he is unlikely to restrict US LNG exports either.
- Spanish industry will feel less pain than its ‘big four’ peers if energy prices remain elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …COULD THE ECB HIKE THIS YEAR?
In one line: Surge in investment boosted Q4 growth.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
