Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
- The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
- We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced.
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
- In one line: Sales stumble again as financial headwinds intensify.
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
In one line: Stabilisation.
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
- We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point.
- The aggressive capex plans of the big tech firms suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters.
- July's PPI data likely will show that retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins are being squeezed by tariffs.
- Mexico — Rally slows near resistance
- Argentina — Fragile rebound ahead of elections
- Chile — At record high, set for steady year-end gains
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
- Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
- Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.
