- In one line: A strong—but dumb—policy response.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
A SMALL WOBBLE AS MORTGAGE-RATE DROP PAUSES...
- ...BUT PRICES WILL STILL RISE 4% IN 2024
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Slowing incomes and a rising saving rate threaten consumption
- EUROZONE - A decade covering the EZ; what have we learnt, and what’s next?
- UK - Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volaility
- CHINA+ - China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan
- EM ASIA - Malaysian manufacturing growth will only pick up further from Q1
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- S&P's employment index has inaccurately pointed to sharp slowdowns in growth in payrolls before...
- ...but its grim message should be taken seriously now, given that it is echoed by the NFIB survey.
- Easter effects point to a downside surprise in durable goods orders ex-transportation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- LatAm central banks are taking a cautious approach to monetary policy due to a still-hawkish Fed.
- Mexico’s economic activity rebounded solidly in February, helping to avert a sharper downturn in Q1.
- Increased fiscal support is boosting growth, but rising real rates pose challenges in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The strong 2024 run in India’s PMIs continued in April, but they still point to sub-8% GDP growth…
- …Hiring appears to have regained momentum recently, but the hard EPFO data remain sluggish.
- Continued headline disinflation in Singapore will be tough, as the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI is consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- The PAYE employment drop in March looks like noise, as the PMI records strengthening jobs growth.
- Price pressures remain elevated, with the minimum-wage hike boosting input price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Residential investment bounced in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Post-festive spending fatigue hits growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Borrowing overshoots Budget forecasts but the Chancellor will still cut taxes again later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
