Pantheon Publications

8 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor German and EZ Industry to Stay in Recession for Now

• German industry was in recession in early H2, and we suspect it will remain so at least to year-end.
• Spanish industry ended Q3 on a high but was still also in recession.
• Construction will continue to struggle; risks to our call for EZ GDP to rebound are to the downside.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ PMIs Point to a Broad-Based Slowdown; Are They Correct?

• The PMIs warn that the slowdown in the EZ economy is becoming more broad-based...
• ...But they’re probably too pessimistic, and investor sentiment points to better headlines ahead.
• German factory orders edged higher in September, but the details show that overall weakness persists.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, November 2023

In one line: Pointing to better times ahead for the economic surveys.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2023

In one line: The slowdown is becoming broad-based.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2023

In one line: The slowdown is becoming broad-based.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Headline lifted by large orders, and revisions signal downside risks to the initial Q3 GDP estimate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, September 2023

In one line: Net exports in goods were virtually flat in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, October

In one line: The increase in claims is accelerating; unemployment to rise further in Q4.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

November 2023 - EZ Economic Chartbook - Early November

EZ GDP IS FALLING, AND INFLATION IS SLIDING

• WILL THE ECB TAKE NOTE?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Should Bunds be at 3% or Higher? The Term Premium Says Yes

• The rise in bund yields since summer is driven by a higher term premium, from a depressed level.
• Medium-term forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate suggest that the term premium could rise further.
• We still see a near-term fall in bond yields as core inflation undershoots the ECB’s expectations.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Rapid Disinflation and Falling GDP in the EZ; Will the ECB Take Note?

• EZ inflation plunged in October, but energy inflation will snap back in November and December.
• We still see a much quicker fall in core inflation than the ECB between now and March.
• GDP in the Eurozone fell slightly in Q3, and we look for another poor quarter in Q4, with zero growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone