Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, July 2025

Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.

EZ Datanote: GDP (2nd Est.), Employment & Industrial Production, EZ, Q2/June 2025

In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.

18 August 2025 US Monitor Consumption growth is stabilizing, at a sluggish pace

• Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
• ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
• We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.

18 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Demographics, demographics, demographics...still a big boon

• EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
• …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
• We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.

18 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's domestic demand swoons in the scorching summer heat

• China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
• Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
• More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.

18 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ PPI data have something for ECB hawks and doves alike

• EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
• The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
• …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.

18 August 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: hawkish week underscores the MPC's challenge

• Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
• The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
• We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, July 2025

In one line: Holding steady at a low level.  

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

Global Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, July

In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, July

In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty 

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, July

In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, June

In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, July

In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser 

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, July

In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, June

In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.