Nudging back up, but no sustained increase visible on the near horizon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The Labor Market is Softening, but it is not Rolling Over
- EUROZONE - Should Bunds be at 3% or Higher? The Term Premium Says Yes
- U.K. - The MPC Will Pivot Quickly; Stable Rates in 2024 Are Not Our Base Case
- CHINA+ - China’s Industrial Profits Improve Further Stoking Investment Demand
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s Narrow Q3 GDP Miss Worse Than It Looks
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP Still Resilient in Q3, but Growth Momentum Set to Ease
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
- Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
- ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
- …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
- Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gradual downshift in job growth continues, but labor demand is not collapsing.
- If unemployment hits 4%, the Fed will struggle to jus- tify sticking to the line that it could hike again.
- Wage growth is slowing, with a further softening in the pipeline; further policy tightening is unnecessary.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
The rebalancing continues; chance of a Dec hike dips further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Unit labor costs consistent with the inflation target, if sustained
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Unemployment Likely will Rise even if Job Gains Remain Close to 200K
- EUROZONE- A Dovish ECB, Despite No Talk of Rate Cuts Next Year
- U.K. - MPC Won’t Hint at 2024 Rate Cuts Just Yet, Despite Data Surprises
- CHINA+ - More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
- EM ASIA - BSP’s Off-Cycle Rate Hike a Rash Move; Expect No More This Quarter
- LATAM - We Still Expect Brazil’s Selic Rate to Be Cut to Around 7% Next Year
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
