Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
- Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
- Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
- Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
- We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
- …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
- We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A dovish release that raises the chance of the MPC easing policy again in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: BRC retail sales growth stronger than the headline suggests, consumer spending will remain robust.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.
- Payrolls lift the chance of an August cut, but the MPC will likely stick to its “gradual and cautious” guidance.
- We are comfortable assuming only one more rate cut in this cycle, even if it may now come sooner.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- May’s huge fall in payrolls looks exaggerated; other indicators, such as redundancies, are improving.
- Rising LFS employment and falling payrolls point to workers shifting towards self-employment.
- Wage growth is easing gradually but still remains way above inflation-target-consistent rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
IGNORE THE STAMP-DUTY-INDUCED PULLBACK...
- ...HOUSE PRICES WILL STILL GAIN 4.5% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
