Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

May 2025 - China+ Chartbook

- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, April

  • In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 May 2025 US Monitor Homebase signals solid May jobs, but its track record is subpar

  • Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
  • ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
  • Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem. 

Samuel TombsUS

21 May 2025 Global Monitor Stong GDP growth won't prevent the SNB from cutting below zero

  • US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
  • EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
  • UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
  • EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
  • LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

21 May 2025 LatAm Monitor A strong start for Chile's economy, but growth momentum will ease

  • Chile’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, led by services and government spending, despite a drag from mining.
  • Its external accounts improved in Q1 at the headline level, despite portfolio outflows and income deficits.
  • The investment outlook is brighter, given less political risk, but structural issues and uncertainty loom large.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ construction slowed in Q1, but leading indicators are improving

  • EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving. 
  • The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods. 
  • Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 May 2025 UK Monitor Stamp-duty-induced unwind in housing market activity temporary

  • Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
  • Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
  • ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON CHINA+ DATA WRAP Dec-31-CN-PMI

  • In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, March, 2025

  • In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, March, 2025

  • In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q1, 2025

  • In one line: Q1 growth solid, but momentum set to ease.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 May 2025 US Monitor How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the "Big Beautiful Bill" passes?

  • The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening. 
  • But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
  • Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.

Samuel TombsUS

20 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

  • Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
  • …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
  • Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor US front-running boosts Thailand's Q1, but it's all downhill from here

  • GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
  • …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
  • This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's cooling due more to existing issues than tariff war, so far at least

  • China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
  • Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
  • The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation is about to hit 2%; is that worth one or two ECB cuts?

  • EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much? 
  • Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too. 
  • Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 May 2025 UK Monitor Immigration curbs will cut potential growth and lift inflation slightly

  • New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
  • We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
  • A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 May 2025: Broad cooling in China's April activity growth

China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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