Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
In one line: Decline in December was not as bad as in the rest of the big four.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- Deflation in EZ and German energy producer prices points to a rebound in energy-intensive industry.
- The leap in the EZ manufacturing input price PMI signals a rebound in core EZ PPI inflation.
- EZ industrial production likely suffered its steepest monthly fall in more than two years in December.
- Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
- …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
- We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
- US - January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus
- EUROZONE - ECB sets out the—unlikely, in our view—conditions for a rate cut
- UK - CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast
- CHINA+ - PM Takaichi’s election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s ‘hot’ Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one
- LATAM - Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
