Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, June

Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, May, 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: Up a touch because of an increase in Italy’s unemployment rate. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

June 2025- UK Chartbook

WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...

• …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, June

Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, June

In one line: Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, May, 2025

• In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, May, 2025

• In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 July 2025 US Monitor Will Mr. Trump blink again during the upcoming tariff spats?

• The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
• But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown. 
• The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession

Samuel TombsUS

3 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Currencies steady, but global and fiscal risks loom

• Brazilian Real —  Rebound tests fiscal resolve
• Mexican Peso —  Rally faces growing headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor What are the chances of a "beautiful releveraging" in Europe?

• A glass-half-full perspective indicates that the stars are aligned for a “beautiful releveraging” in the EZ. 
• The EZ economy is completing a soft landing, an important prerequisite for a beautiful releveraging.  
• Germany leading from the front is a key condition for a growth-supporting leverage cycle in the Eurozone.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 July 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely rebounded in May to grow by 0.1% month-to-month

• We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
• We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
• We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June & ECB Inflation Expectations, EZ, May 2025

In one line: German unemployment rate won’t hold steady for much longer; inflation expectations likely to continue to fall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, June 2025

In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, June

• In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, June

• In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global