Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- US - Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July
- EUROZONE - ECB to stand pat this week; big decision awaits in September
- UK - Most of June’s CPI inflation rise was genuine
- CHINA+ - China’s steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation
- EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying
- LATAM - Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
- This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
- Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
- ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027.
- We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight…
- ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped…
- ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
