Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US International Trade / Weekly Jobless Claims

Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March 2026

Core goods inflation unlikely to surge

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, March 2026

• In one line: Core goods inflation unlikely to surge.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales / ADP Employment

Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, March 2026

• In one line: A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, February 2026

• In one line: Trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, March 2026

• In one line: Iran war hits most factories hard; price shock immediate and big.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, March 2026

• In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, March 2026

• In one line: BanRep hikes again, doubling down on credibility.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January 2026

• In one line: House price inflation has further to drop as the Iran War dents sentiment and boosts borrowing costs.

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2026

• In one line:Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers’ spending growth will ease in the coming months.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, March 2026

• In one line: Consumers’ confidence has further to fall in 2026.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, February 2026

• In one line: Households and businesses on solid financial footing heading into the energy price shock.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March 2026

• In one line: The housing market will weaken over the course of 2026.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS / Consumer Confidence

No sign of the labor market turning a corner.

2 April 2026 US Monitor February's strong retail sales data obscure underlying weakness

• February’s solid retail sales likely were lifted by the weather and a short-lived boost from tax refunds.
• The underlying trend probably is still soft, and looks set to slow further amid the shock to energy prices.
• We think consumption growth of around 2% in Q1 will be followed by unchanged spending in Q2. 

2 April 2026 LatAm Monitor Oil shock reshapes Latam FX, carry is a cushion for some

• Mexican peso —  Policy shift weakens the carry story
• Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
• Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook