Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, November 2025

In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Eurozone, November 2025

• In one line: Still pointing to upside risks to our forecast for Q4.

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence & Advance PMIs, France, November 2025

In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output.

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, November 2025

• In one line: Private sector activity growth slows but Q4 still set to be better than Q3.  

Global Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence and Advance PMIs, France, November 2025

• In one line: Solid headlines in services; weakness coming in industrial output. 

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, October

In one line: exports hold up ahead of row with China

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 November 2025

Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for India
Malaysia’s recent inflation spike could be over

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, October 2025

Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.

Global Datanote: Employment, US, October 2025

• In one line: Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.

PM Datanote: US Employment, October 2025

Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.

EZ Datanote: Advance EC Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, November

In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2025

• In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing output to remain weak in Q4.

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, September 2025

• In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, October 2025

• In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, October 2025

December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.

21 November 2025 US Monitor Rising unemployment keeps a December FOMC easing in play

• The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
• ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
• The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.

21 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Strong euro to push the EZ current account into deficit in 2026?

• The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
• Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
• EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.