Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, June

Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 July 2025 Global Monitor Solid Q2 GDP growth masks intensifying deflation in China

  • US - Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July
  • EUROZONE - ECB to stand pat this week; big decision awaits in September
  • UK - Most of June’s CPI inflation rise was genuine
  • CHINA+ - China’s steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation
  • EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying
  • LATAM - Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

24 July 2025 US Monitor The slide in the dollar looks like all pain and no gain

  • We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
  • …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
  • Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

24 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's retail sales shrink in Q2: downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call

  • Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
  • This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
  • Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.

Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia

24 July 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's trade deal should bring forward BoJ's next rate hike

  • We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
  • The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
  • USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

24 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread to fall to 30bp early next year

  • Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
  •  ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027. 
  • We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 July 2025 UK Monitor Signs of stabilising vacancies bode well for an easing in job falls

  • Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
  • Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
  • ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: ECB BLS, EZ, Q2 2025

In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, June 2025

  • In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 July 2025 US Monitor Further fall in housing inflation will give the Fed some breathing room

  • Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
  • …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
  • It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

23 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds mounting into H2

  • Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
  • Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
  • Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian core IP finally found its feet in Q2, but short-term risks prevail

  • Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
  • …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
  • Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB BLS won't move the needle for this week's rates meeting

  • Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight… 
  • ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped… 
  • ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2025 UK Monitor Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade

  • We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
  • 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
  • Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, June

  • In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 July 2025 US Monitor State-level payrolls cast further doubt on a migrant exodus

  • BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
  • Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
  • A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.

Samuel TombsUS

22 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's recovery continues, but fiscal storm clouds are gathering

  • Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
  • The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
  • Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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