Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, August

  • In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.

September 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

GDP LIKELY REGAINED SOME MOMENTUM IN Q3...

  • ...BUT CONTINUED CAUTIOUS HIRING WILL SPUR FURTHER EASING

23 September 2025 US Monitor Every indicator of future wage growth has turned south

  • The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
  • The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
  • The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.

23 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico keeps cautious easing amid inflation and weak growth

  • Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
  • External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
  • Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.

23 September 2025 China+ Monitor Xi-Trump call: Trust rebuilding, finer TikTok details still being ironed out

  • Presidents Xi and Trump’s phone call last Friday to talk about trade paved the way for a summit in October.
  • Korean 20-day WDA exports fell sharply in September, thanks to weaker demand across most destinations.
  • Most Korean goods are still subject to higher tariffs than pre-Trump. We expect the BoK to cut in Q4.

23 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor We're lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut

  • EURUSD has remained stronger than we anticipated; we are raising our forecasts.
  • We still look for near-term weakness in EURUSD, but we’re lifting our forecast for end-2026, to 1.17. 
  • If EURUSD rises to 1.20-to-1.25 in Q4 this year, ECB rate cuts would come swiftly back on to the agenda. 

23 September 2025 UK Monitor Deteriorating public finances mean the Chancellor faces a £25B hole

  • The public finances deteriorated in August; borrowing is now drifting well above profile.
  • Weak receipts account for most of the fiscal underperformance so far this year.
  • We think the Government has to raise £25B to restore the paltry £9.9B of fiscal headroom.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, September

Unemployment fears resurge; discretionary spending likely to remain subdued.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2025

In one line: Positive pick-up in services, but downside risks loom in industrial output.

22 September 2025 US Monitor Business capex will keep struggling, despite looser financial conditions

  • Financial conditions have improved for large firms; the bond refinancing headwind has almost gone...
  • ...But the option value of waiting for more information is high; the federal policy outlook is uncertain.
  • Small businesses still face tight credit conditions; FDI is costlier; and profits are now being squeezed.

22 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's recovery gains traction, but fiscal and external risks deepen

  • Services and consumption drive growth in Colombia, but weak exports and capex are still limiting.
  • Fiscal credibility deteriorates as deficits widen, and the Petro government suspends key safeguards.
  • Policy options narrow as inflation expectations rise and political risk builds ahead of the 2026 elections.

22 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor The Philippines' new ICI body; short-term pain for long-term gain

  • The Philippines’ new anti-corruption drive in public projects is likely to stymie activity in the short run…
  • …But needs must, as governance has been eroding, making Manila an even bigger laggard in the region.
  • Malaysia's exports moderated in August, though we are still optimistic, considering the PMI data.

22 September 2025 China+ Monitor The BoJ stands fast on policy rate, plans sales of stock ETFs

  • The BoJ held the policy rate steady on Friday, as broadly expected; but two dissenters wanted a hike.
  • We expect a 25bp hike in October, though it will be a knife-edge decision amid political and trade risks.
  • The Bank said it will offload its ETFs and Japan REITs but at a glacial pace to minimise market impact.

22 September 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: Will survey data shift the odds for ECB policy in Q4?

  • September’s first business survey from INSEE for France suggests the outlook is still weak.
  • We look for a small rise in the Eurozone’s flash PMIs next week, but they will still point to slow growth.
  • Other surveys, such as Germany’s IFO BCI and the EC consumer sentiment gauge, likely advanced too.

22 September 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: Stick inflation and questionable slack

  • A stabilising labour market and sticky underlying inflation support out call for no more rate cuts.
  • Hawkish details in the MPC minutes raise the bar to another cut this year.
  • Awful public finance data reduce the chance that Chancellor Reeves will soften duty hikes next year.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: A decent start to Q3, but the carry-over is still negative.

PM Datanote: US Producer Prices, August 2025

The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.

19 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Copom holds Selic but normalisation path emerging; Argentina in trouble

  • Copom holds the Selic rate steady, signalling vigilance, but hinting peak rates are now behind us.
  • A firmer BRL and easing inflation expectations reinforce the case for gradual cuts from December.
  • Recovery stalls in Argentina as demand weakens, credit fades, and recession risks rise.

19 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Growth not putting pressure on CBC to cut, but inflation is easing

  • Taiwan's central bank kept the discount rate at 2.000% yesterday, which was no surprise to anyone.
  • Economic growth is likely to be much stronger in Q3; we have upgraded our forecast to 8.4%.
  • Strong export growth is reducing the need for a rate cut, notwithstanding weak consumption.
  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
 

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subscribing to and click next.

United States

Eurozone

United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America

Next

 
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Publications

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence