Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Pass-through from the tariffs slows, but is not complete yet
- EUROZONE - What can a New Keynesian Phillips curve say about EZ inflation?
- UK - The MPC are cautious, we expect no more rate cuts this year
- CHINA+ - Chinese exporters less willing to absorb higher tariffs in their margin
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ market-beating Q2 GDP doesn’t stand up to scrutiny
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Pass-through from the tariffs to consumer prices slowed in July, but will re-accelerate in the fall.
- The rebound in airline fares has further to run, but services inflation otherwise looks set to moderate.
- The FOMC likely will ease policy next month, despite more tariff-led inflation, to support the labor market.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil's July IPCA undershot expectations, with the inflation rate easing to 5.2% from 5.4% in June…
- …Falling food and industrial goods prices, plus a stronger BRL, point to continued gradual disinflation.
- We expect the BCRP to hold at 4.50% this week, though a 25bp cut later this year remains possible.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ZEW confirms the message from the Sentix: investors don’t like the EU-US trade deal.
- Investor sentiment indices still point to a rise in the PMI in the coming months, but we doubt it.
- The EZ economy will struggle now that US tariffs have risen further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Payrolls declined by 8K month-to-month in July, the smallest drop in six months.
- Redundancies fell and vacancies look to have stabilised; the worst of the job slowdown is over.
- Private-sector pay growth was below the MPC’s call in Q2, but it remains too high to cut rates rapidly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
- …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
- We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chile's July CPI jumped, on electricity and services, pushing up inflation for the first time since March.
- BCCh launched an USD18.5B reserve accumulation plan to cut its reliance on a shrinking IMF credit line.
- Colombia’s inflation rose, as structural pressures persist, delaying the prospect of further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The shape of the Phillips curve is unstable over time, but its shifts are difficult to pin down with data.
- Data point to a flat PC in the EZ, and a high sacrifice ratio for the ECB, but only for demand-pull inflation.
- Our estimates of the NKPC support our broader call that EZ inflation will ultimately settle above 2%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
- ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
- We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
- ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
- Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.
Samuel TombsUS
- Banxico opted for a smaller rate cut, balancing better headline inflation against sticky core pressures.
- Its updated forecasts show headline inflation easing but core elevated, delaying convergence to target.
- The more gradual 25bp pace is likely to continue, with data-dependency guiding further cuts in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations in July, rising 42.0% after June’s already-high 33.7% growth.
- Consensus should have it just right for India’s July CPI; early-August data suggest this was the low.
- This week’s BoT meeting is ‘live’; we think the Bank will hold fire in spite of the majority view for a cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s monthly export momentum slowed for a second straight month as the US reprieve expiry nears.
- Easing of the seasonally adjusted rate likely reflects fading stockpiling and transshipment demand in July.
- Shipments of pharma and rare earth surged after the ‘London consensus’ and ahead of Section 232 tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- National data for Q2 suggest a rise in EZ negotiated wage growth after a plunge in Q1.
- Early data for Q3 are mixed, but stable inflation points to wage growth holding broadly steady ahead.
- Falling Irish and German industrial production mean EZ industry had a difficult end to Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A tight vote split and cautious guidance make the MPC’s August cut to Bank Rate hawkish.
- Inflation averaging 3.7% for the rest of the year means August’s rate cut will be the last in 2025.
- The data-flow will firm up this week, to show GDP growth rebounding and payrolls barely falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, but risks linger.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
