US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
- ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
- No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
- October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
- PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Markets have broken decisively from the Fed; inves- tors no longer believe in rate hike optionality.
- Core CPI inflation ex-rents is now just 2.0% and fall- ing, and the pace of rent increases will slow sharply.
- We’re sticking to our call for the first easing in March, but we doubt Chair Powell will quickly declare victory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- October’s core CPI probably rose 0.4%, but the risks are biased to the downside.
- Hotel room rates, health insurance and new vehicle prices all seem likely to have pushed up the core.
- Our medium-term optimism remains, but disinflation won’t proceed in a neat straight line every month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
- Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
- ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
- …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
- Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
