Pantheon Macroeconomics
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An uptrend in initial claims is probably still in the pipeline.
Tranquil labor market conditions unlikely to last much longer.
Too volatile to make us fear a renewed downturn in manufacturing.
Generous seasonals still depressing claims, but an uptrend is coming.
Manufacturers are past the worst, but claims will rise this spring.
Claims unlikely to remain so low
Demand for core capital goods remains weak; rebound in claims does not change the low and flat trend.
Likely weather-depressed; trend uncertain but very low
Starts data are noisy, but a modest housing recovery is underway.
Wait for the core PCE before rushing to inflation judgment
Sharp drop in claims probably is noise; the ADP is deeply unreliable.
Layoffs still very depressed, but people are finding it harder to secure new jobs.
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