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Flat trend in permits points to relapse in starts soon.
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.
Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.
Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.
Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.
Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.
Initially resilient, but near-real time data now show gas price pain.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
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