US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
- We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories.
- The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal.
- US import prices rose by three percentage points less than global import prices in the year to October.
- Foreign manufacturers of autos and alcoholic drinks have slashed prices to remain competitive.
- Auto manufacturers will rebuild margins in 2026, but other supply chains will adapt to cut tariff exposure.
- Low claims likely reflect cautious temporary hiring in Q4, rather than reviving labor demand.
- Only one quarter of the unemployed claim benefits; new entrants are struggling to find their first job.
- Spending will be little changed and CPI/PCE inflation unaffected if ACA tax credits do not return.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
- The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
- Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
- The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
Still weak enough to sustain the pressure for more Fed easing.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
- ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
- The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.
- JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
- Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
- The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
- Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
- ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.
- Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs.
- Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
- Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
- We look for a modest 75K rise in payrolls and a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in December.
- Retailers and hospitality firms hired cautiously; consumers continue to report worsening job availability.
- The FOMC still looks likely to pause in January, but the case for easing again will be robust by March.
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
- The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023...
- ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
- The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.
- Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
- Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
- Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.
- Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
- Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
- The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually.
- We expect a first estimate of a mere 50K rise in November payrolls, despite slightly better surveys...
- ...Retailers have hired relatively few seasonal workers; the upward bias in the first estimate should be mild.
- The unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in November, from 4.4% in October.
