US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
- Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
- The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
Samuel TombsUS
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
Samuel TombsUS
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
Samuel TombsUS
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
Samuel TombsUS
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Samuel TombsUS
