Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,