PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending March; ECI, Q1

The Fed will like core PCE services ex-housing, but not the ECI.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Pending Home Sales, March

The rebound in home sales is hitting the buffers.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Durable Goods Orders/Advance Trade, March

Bigger falls in core capital goods orders are coming; net trade was broadly neutral in Q1.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Consumer Confidence, March

Expectations signal weaker consumption, but not a disaster.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: New Home Sales, March

Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess inventory.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Existing Home Sales, March

Sales rose in Q1, but expect a reversal in Q2; a sustained recovery remains a long way off

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Housing Starts, March

Past the worst, but any improvement will be slow going.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, March

The manufacturing rollover continues.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, March

So much for the red-hot start to the year...

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, March

The downshift continues, and has a long way to go

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Fed Minutes, March 21/22

Prudent tweaking after SVB, or a failure of imagination?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2023 US Monitor A Prudent Tweak After SVB, or a Failure of the FOMC's Imagination?

• The FOMC is still more worried about inflation than growth; that view will not be sustained.
• Core CPI rent increases are finally rolling over, but services inflation is still sticky, but not for long.
• Core PPI inflation likely fell again in March as margins compress and global goods inflation eases further. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, March

The rollover in rents is finally underway.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, March

Pointing to a steep drop in payroll growth ahead.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, March

Ouch, and worse is coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, March

Ignoring the ADP remains the safest course of action.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, March

Tough times lie ahead.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.