US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
Samuel TombsUS
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
- Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
- The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.
Samuel TombsUS
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
Samuel TombsUS
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
- …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
- Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
Samuel TombsUS
Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
