US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Probably a false alarm on services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Samuel TombsUS
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
Samuel TombsUS
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Samuel TombsUS
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
