US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
- Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
- Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Samuel TombsUS
A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
Samuel TombsUS
Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
