UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
- A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
- Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.
UK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
- Recent CPI inflation and wage data have undershot the MPC’s expectations...
- ...and it will judge that sterling’s appreciation will offset the boost to inflation from lower rate expectations.
- But Mr. Bailey has repeatedly pushed back against the fall in rate expectations; don’t expect a dovish tone yet.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 4.4% in November, from 4.6% in October, remaining 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- BRC and Eurozone data both point to further falls in food and core goods CPI inflation.
- Motor fuel CPI inflation also declined in November; surveys point to slowing service price rises too.
Samuel TombsUK
- Household disposable income will receive a 0.6pp boost from tax and benefit changes in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
- The drag on disposable income growth from mortgage refinancing looks set to halve in 2024.
- Many households intend to save more, but saving already is higher than normal; real spending will pick up next year.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
