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28th Dec 2023 12:22UK, Weekly Monitor

  • The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
  • A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
  • Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.

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Keywords for: 2 January 2024 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence