UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist) Samuel Tombs
- On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
- Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
- ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell for the second straight month in October, though that partly reflected the warmer, wetter weather.
- But real incomes look set to recover, as pay growth outstrips CPI inflation and cost-of-living grants resume.
- Some of this extra cash will be saved, but people will be able to spend more too; retail sales will recover in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- October’s 4.6% rate of CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp, largely due to services prices.
- The core CPI has risen at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of just 2.2% over the past three months...
- ...Some one-off price falls have supported the slowdown, but PPI data suggest it will largelybe sustained.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Well below the MPC’s forecast, thanks to slowing services CPI inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Average weekly wages rose at a month-to-month annualised rate of just 2.9% in September.
- This first estimate will likely be revised up, but the slowing trend is now entrenched; labour market slack is growing.
- Growth in PAYE median pay has also slowed; the case for cutting Bank Rate gradually will be robust by May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Real interest rates will rise further in 2024 if nominal rates hold steady, encouraging extra private-sector saving.
- The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages will continue to rise, even if Bank Rate is cut sharply.
- The fiscal consolidation will intensify next year; macro policy will remain restrictive even with rate cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The fall in households’ spending will be reversed in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP would have fallen in Q3, if the volatile net trade and inventories components hadn’t support growth...
- ...But growth in real household disposable income will pick up in Q4, enabling both more spending and saving.
- Business investment was in line with pre-Covid norms despite falling in Q3; surveys signal continued resilience.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think services inflation fell to 6.7% in October, from 6.9% in September, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Granted, Index Day was closer than usual to the school holidays, and rents CPI inflation likely continued to rise...
- ...But surveys show that substantially fewer firms raised prices than a year ago, when energy costs soared.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.
Samuel TombsUK
- Momentum in nominal GDP has meant that public borrowing has undershot the OBR’s forecast this year...
- ...But, in the medium term, the outlook for higher debt interest payments will dominate the tax receipts windfall.
- Mr. Hunt will cross his fingers and hope for scope to cut taxes in the Budget, rather than risk markets’ ire this time.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for a 0.2% month-to-month decline in GDP in September, below the no-change consensus.
- Warmer-than-usual weather hit output in the retail and energy-supply sectors; car sales likely plunged too.
- Strikes in the health sector were more disruptive than in August but look set to moderate in Q4.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.
Samuel TombsUK
In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC’s forecasts imply it doesn’t expect to cut Bank Rate next year, even as modestly as markets expect...
- ...But Mr. Bailey downplayed the forecasts, and the pledge tokeeprates“restrictive” stillleavesroomforcuts.
- We expect services CPI inflation in Q4 to undershoot the MPC’s forecast, easing concerns about upside risks.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: New forecasts signal no rate cuts in 2024, but the MPC won’t be bound by them.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The destocking process which is weighing on manufacturing output has further to run.
Samuel TombsUK
- The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
- Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
- Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.
Samuel TombsUK
