UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Samuel Tombs
- The MPC will slash its forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 after encouraging recent data and natural gas price falls.
- This revision will persuade the hawks to join the majority, but concerns about the medium-term outlook will linger.
- The MPC will try to counter market pricing for swift rate cuts by forecasting above-2% inflation two-years ahead.
Samuel TombsUK
- Public borrowing is on course to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for 2023/24 by about £5B.
- ‘Fiscal headroom’ is a distraction; Mr. Hunt will cut taxes as much as he can without jeopardising MPC rate cuts.
- We expect Budget tax cuts of £20B in 2024/25, but some people might save the windfall, fearing tax hikes soon.
Samuel TombsUK
- Vacancies are falling and redundancies are grinding higher; still no big shifts, but February is a key month.
- The OBR’s medium-term RPI inflation forecast is too low; a reappraisal would limit the rise in fiscal headroom.
- Markets’ willingness to absorb extra issuance is the main constraint on tax cuts; Mr. Hunt won’t push it too far.
Samuel TombsUK
- Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in the all-items CPI slowed to just 1.4% in December...
- ...and to 2.2% for the core CPI; both headline and service inflation have undershot the MPC's forecast.
- The combination of falling energy prices and flat goods prices points to a 2% headline rate by April.
Samuel TombsUK
- The autumn slowdown in wage growth looks real; revisions after the second estimate tend to be small...
- ...But surveys point to a near-term re-acceleration, and the NLW hike looks set to have some bite.
- The unemployment rate is rising slowly; the MPC can’t be confident it is already above or near its equilibrium.
Samuel TombsUK
- Investors now attach a small probability to the MPC cutting Bank Rate by 50bp at one of its meetings.
- Almost one-third of Bank Rate cuts have been larger than 25bp, but the odds are low this year.
- Markets aren’t stressed, recession risks are easing and the MPC would prefer sub-2% to above-target inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 3.9% in December, staying 0.7pp below the MPC’s MPR forecast.
- Core goods CPI inflation probably recovered a bit after November’s dip, but services inflation likely edged down.
- A base effect likely reduced accommodation services inflation; no reason to expect an erratic airfares outturn.
Samuel TombsUK
- We look for flat employee numbers in December, a slight deterioration compared to earlier months in 2023...
- ...But October’s fall in AWE will be revised smaller, and public sector pay rises likely boosted AWE in November.
- The slowdown in wage growth likely will still be too mild for the MPC to change its tune at February’s meeting.
Samuel TombsUK
- Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
- Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
- The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.
Samuel TombsUK
- The economy had no momentum last year, partly because households’ saving ratio increased sharply...
- ...But many people have now replenished their savings; others benefited in Q4 from a jump in financial wealth.
- A revival in mortgage lending in 2024 will lower the saving ratio, ensuring spending rises more quickly than RHDI.
Samuel TombsUK
- Borrowing in the first eight months of 2023/24 is currently estimated to have topped the OBR's forecast by £6B…
- ...But early borrowing estimates often are revised down, and lower RPI inflation will weigh on interest payments.
- The fall in interest rate expectations suggests Mr. Hunt has scope to cut taxes by about £15B in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline CPI rose at a three-month-on-three-month annualised rate of just 1.8% in November.
- The MPC won’t dismiss this as just noise; its new measure of underlying services inflation has slowed too.
- Stable producer prices and falling energy prices imply the headline rate will hit the 2% target as soon as May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Timely indicators of house-purchase demand have strengthened, but not by quite enough to raise prices yet.
- House price indices still paint very different pictures; we expect the official index to be revised down.
- Demand, however, will recover further in Q1, as mortgage rates continue to fall; expect a 5% rise in prices in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- Ofgem likely will reduce its default tariff cap by 10% in April, if wholesale prices remain at their current level.
- Current weights imply this will reduce the all-items CPI by 0.5pp; the drag might be larger after weight updates.
- The recent fall in oil prices has improved the CPI inflation outlook too; we expect it to average just 2.7% in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- The MPC still thinks that monetary policy will need to be restrictive “for an extended period of time”.
- It downplayed recent downside data surprises and continued to fret about upward inflation risks.
- It will wait for clarity on fiscal policy and the impact of the NLW hike before easing; the first cut will come in May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Most of October’s 0.3% month-to-month fall in GDP probably was reversed in November...
- ...Some sectors struggled in October due to bad weather; survey and employee data point to modest GDP growth.
- The near-term outlook for real household disposable income is positive; a recession is still only a tail risk.
Samuel TombsUK
- The first estimate of a month-to-month drop in wages in October likely will be revised to a small rise soon...
- ...but the rising trend has weakened greatly since Q2, and PAYE RTI data point to further near-term weakness.
- Wage growth will accelerate only slightly in the run-up to April’s NLW hike; the MPC can cut rates in May.
Samuel TombsUK
- Services CPI inflation likely rose to 6.6% in November, from 6.5%, but undershot the MPC’s 6.9% forecast.
- Surveys point to an ongoing slowdown in service price rises; the energy price shock has filtered through...
- ...But accommodation services and TV subscription prices likely picked up in November.
Samuel TombsUK
- We think GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in October, despite disruption from Storm Babet.
- The composite PMI points to a decline in activity, but we think it has been excessively weak recently.
- Output in the health sector likely increased again, driven by a pick-up in Covid booster vaccinations.
Samuel TombsUK
- Employee numbers likely were broadly unchanged month-to-month in November.
- PAYE figures and ONS survey data point to a further loss of upward momentum in wages in October...
- ...But rises in the Real Living Wage and public- sector pay likely supported growth temporarily
Samuel TombsUK
